On the horizon of 2040, the African continent will have a surplus of these two hydrocarbons, according to the calculations of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPAEP), which forecasts a “significant future progress in the energy industry in Africa”.
In its monthly newsletter of February, OPAEP presented a study by the General Secretariat on ‘Developments in the oil and gas sector in African countries. The document reveals that Africa will have, in that year, “a surplus of crude oil, which will range between 2.3 and 3.3 million barrels.” The demand of the continent will then represent between 68% and 72.9% of the volume of its ‘black gold’ production.
For natural gas, the report – whose data echoes the publication ‘The Huffington Post’ – also foresees a stock in Africa of between 154,000 and 179,000 million cubic meters. Demand will be installed on the fork from 64.3% to 66.5% of the expected production volume in 2040.
The members of the Kuwait-based multilateral organization – responsible for coordinating energy policies among Arab nations – expect oil production in African countries to range between 8.5 and 10.3 million barrels per day in that year, which it will mean between 8.3% and 8.9% of world production.
The demand for crude oil in Africa will know, until 2040, an annual increase of the order of 2.5%, while the need for natural gas should observe a rebound per year ranging between 3.5% and 3.7%, up to 5.1 to 5.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
The OPAEP report underlines that the global volume of proven reserves of crude oil in Africa, including Arab countries, was estimated at 127 billion barrels at the end of 2017, from 53.4 billion barrels in 1980. These stocks represent 7% of the total proven reserves of crude oil worldwide.
In the last five years, the nations of Sub-Saharan Africa have represented 30% of the discoveries of these two fossil resources in the world.
For their part, the Arab countries are leaders in the natural gas industry, while Algeria is the largest producer of this energy resource in the continent.
For their energy needs, the different African markets depend on three sources of raw materials, namely oil, natural gas and coal, the document notes, adding that there has been “a considerable increase in the average consumption of natural gas, observed during the last three decades.”